China and the Future of Commodity Prices

Project Syndicate, Abdul Abiad and Shang-Jin Wei
MANILA – There is no doubt that China’s ongoing growth slowdown has had far-reaching effects on the global economy. But its role in the sharp fall in commodity prices that has occurred since 2014 – an outcome that has been devastating for commodity-exporting countries, including once-dynamic emerging economies – is more limited than the conventional wisdom suggests. In fact, China’s slowdown is only a part of the commodity-price story.

Erdogan’s Policies Are Undermining the Turkish Economy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends a ceremony commemorating the placement of the final section of Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge in Istanbul on 6 March 2016. Photo by Getty Images.

Fadi Hakura, Associate Fellow, Europe Programme
Political interference in monetary policy and an uncompromising approach to foreign affairs are hampering Turkey’s efforts to escape the middle income trap.
All is not well in the Turkish economy. At a time when global financial markets are jittery, Turkey is witnessing a rapid depreciation of the lira and accelerating inflation, driven largely by the political interference of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Turkish central bank.

The End of Globalization?

commodity prices global trade

Project Syndicate, Daniel Gros
BRUSSELS – China has just announced that last year, for the first time since it began opening up its economy to the world at the end of the 1970s, exports declined on an annual basis. And that is not all; in value terms, global trade declined in 2015. The obvious question is why.

EU-Turkey refugee deal - Q&A

Patrick Kingsley and Jennifer Rankin, theguardian
What does the deal involve?
It sounds simple enough: one Syrian refugee on the Greek islands will be returned to Turkey and, in exchange, a Syrian asylum seeker in Turkey will be found a home in Europe.

China’s Volatile Growth

Project Syndicate, Michael Spence and Fred Hu
MILAN – Uncertainty about China’s economic prospects is roiling global markets – not least because so many questions are so difficult to answer. In fact, China’s trajectory has become almost impossible to anticipate, owing to the confusing – if not conflicting – signals being sent by policymakers.
In the real economy, the export-driven tradable sector is contracting, owing to weak foreign demand.

Oil prices poised to remain low as Saudis ‘blink’

GWYNNE DYER, The Japan Times
LONDON – “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent,” said John Maynard Keynes (or maybe it wasn’t him, but no matter). At any rate, that was the eternal verity the Saudi Arabians were counting on when they decided to let oil production rip — and the oil price collapse — in late 2014.

Syndicate content